Just a reference pick:
Hiroshima +0.25FT
Sunday, December 23, 2007
SOCCER MUSING Part 2
After analysing games using team news, stats and odds, I find that the strike rate have been rather low. One conclusion that I have come up with that news tend to affect the outcome of the match. The past UEFA games last week have been a good example.
Lets see 2 classic examples.
Example one.
News have been trumpeting about Alkmaar need to win this game to qualify to the next round of the UEFA cup, Alkmaar has been undefeated at home for the last 32 matches in European competition, Everton bringing a depleted squad to Alkmaar. In a nutshell, news and stats about Alkmaar have been hinting on how important is it for Alkmaar to win. To add on to the convincing news is the tempting handicap offered by oddsmakers of Alkmaar -0.75FT. Majority of punters looking at this would say, Alkmaar "sure win" this encounter, at least by one goal. How can an understrenght Everton pull of a win against Alkmaar? To be on the safe side, perhaps buying draw on Alkmaar would be a good option. To the horror of those who watch the match, Everton pull off a win for this match, knocking out Alkmaar.
Example two.
Same case as Alkmaar, news and previews from major soccer sites have been saying that Panionios need to win this match to qualify. The same situation also occuer whereby Bordeaux travel to Panionios with an understrenght side again, leaving behind their top players to rest. As I have mentioned in Example one, once again oddsmaker open the AH for Panionios -0.75FT. Will Panionios lose against understrenght Bordeaux? Will high flying Panionios who just defeated Panathiniakos during the weekend lose this match and throw away their European hopes? Unlikely outcome and to be on a safe side, buy draw again for this match if anything were to happen. Sad to see that Panionios gave up a 2 goal lead and crash to a 2-3 defeat to Bordeaux.
Conclusion
Are we able to spot these unusual odds and news? If we were able to spot it early, would we dare to eat these team after reading news that so heavily favor the home teams against weakened away teams? Maybe its best not to read the news and looks at the odds movement. Sometimes it is even harder to go against home team after seeing the number of picks and tips from websites are taking the home team.
Just my 2 cents, if you have any views on it, do comment. Cheers.
Lets see 2 classic examples.
Example one.
News have been trumpeting about Alkmaar need to win this game to qualify to the next round of the UEFA cup, Alkmaar has been undefeated at home for the last 32 matches in European competition, Everton bringing a depleted squad to Alkmaar. In a nutshell, news and stats about Alkmaar have been hinting on how important is it for Alkmaar to win. To add on to the convincing news is the tempting handicap offered by oddsmakers of Alkmaar -0.75FT. Majority of punters looking at this would say, Alkmaar "sure win" this encounter, at least by one goal. How can an understrenght Everton pull of a win against Alkmaar? To be on the safe side, perhaps buying draw on Alkmaar would be a good option. To the horror of those who watch the match, Everton pull off a win for this match, knocking out Alkmaar.
Example two.
Same case as Alkmaar, news and previews from major soccer sites have been saying that Panionios need to win this match to qualify. The same situation also occuer whereby Bordeaux travel to Panionios with an understrenght side again, leaving behind their top players to rest. As I have mentioned in Example one, once again oddsmaker open the AH for Panionios -0.75FT. Will Panionios lose against understrenght Bordeaux? Will high flying Panionios who just defeated Panathiniakos during the weekend lose this match and throw away their European hopes? Unlikely outcome and to be on a safe side, buy draw again for this match if anything were to happen. Sad to see that Panionios gave up a 2 goal lead and crash to a 2-3 defeat to Bordeaux.
Conclusion
Are we able to spot these unusual odds and news? If we were able to spot it early, would we dare to eat these team after reading news that so heavily favor the home teams against weakened away teams? Maybe its best not to read the news and looks at the odds movement. Sometimes it is even harder to go against home team after seeing the number of picks and tips from websites are taking the home team.
Just my 2 cents, if you have any views on it, do comment. Cheers.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
RENNES vs DINAMO ZAGREB
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FREAKTIPS PREVIEW
- Rennes required at least a 3 goal margin win to qualify to the next round of the UEFA cup.
- Newly appointed coach Guy Lacombe would like to start his coaching life at Rennes with a win tonite. That would prove to be an early Christmast gift to the fans at home.
- With the new coach at helm, Rennes players would be out to prove their credibility. A credible performance tonite might be ensure the players a regular team start in the future matches.
- Playing at home, Rennes should have have the advantage of the home crowd and I certainly hope they do not dissapoint tonite.
- Lastly my odds calculation favors Rennes.
VERDICT : RENNES -0.25 FT (3 STAR BET)
HAMBURGER vs BASEL (21 Dec 2007)
Kickoff : 3.45am
League : UEFA CUP
Early preview from Soccernet : Link
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FREAKTIPS PREVIEW
FREAKTIPS PREVIEW
To cut a long story short, I shall summarize my pick in point format:
- Hamburger although has qualified for the next round along with Basel would like to go for a win tonite. Qualifying top of the table and maintaining their 100% undefeated record would add another feather to Hamburger's excellent performance this season.
- Since the game is played at Hamburg, there is less fatigue for the players as compared to the travelling Basel.
- Odds calculation favor Hamburg. As I have said in my previous post, I favor alot on my odds calculation, stats and team news serves to add on to the confidence of my pick.
VERDICT : HAMBURGER -1 FT (1 STAR) & HAMBURGER OVER 2.5FT (1 STAR)
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