ONE STOP PUNTING TIPS

FC TOKYO vs HIROSHIMA - Emperor Cup

2007-12-23T13:52:00.000+08:00

Just a reference pick:

Hiroshima +0.25FT

SOCCER MUSING Part 2

2007-12-23T12:33:00.000+08:00

After analysing games using team news, stats and odds, I find that the strike rate have been rather low. One conclusion that I have come up with that news tend to affect the outcome of the match. The past UEFA games last week have been a good example.

Lets see 2 classic examples.

Example one.
News have been trumpeting about Alkmaar need to win this game to qualify to the next round of the UEFA cup, Alkmaar has been undefeated at home for the last 32 matches in European competition, Everton bringing a depleted squad to Alkmaar. In a nutshell, news and stats about Alkmaar have been hinting on how important is it for Alkmaar to win. To add on to the convincing news is the tempting handicap offered by oddsmakers of Alkmaar -0.75FT. Majority of punters looking at this would say, Alkmaar "sure win" this encounter, at least by one goal. How can an understrenght Everton pull of a win against Alkmaar? To be on the safe side, perhaps buying draw on Alkmaar would be a good option. To the horror of those who watch the match, Everton pull off a win for this match, knocking out Alkmaar.

Example two.
Same case as Alkmaar, news and previews from major soccer sites have been saying that Panionios need to win this match to qualify. The same situation also occuer whereby Bordeaux travel to Panionios with an understrenght side again, leaving behind their top players to rest. As I have mentioned in Example one, once again oddsmaker open the AH for Panionios -0.75FT. Will Panionios lose against understrenght Bordeaux? Will high flying Panionios who just defeated Panathiniakos during the weekend lose this match and throw away their European hopes? Unlikely outcome and to be on a safe side, buy draw again for this match if anything were to happen. Sad to see that Panionios gave up a 2 goal lead and crash to a 2-3 defeat to Bordeaux.

Conclusion
Are we able to spot these unusual odds and news? If we were able to spot it early, would we dare to eat these team after reading news that so heavily favor the home teams against weakened away teams? Maybe its best not to read the news and looks at the odds movement. Sometimes it is even harder to go against home team after seeing the number of picks and tips from websites are taking the home team.

Just my 2 cents, if you have any views on it, do comment. Cheers.

RENNES vs DINAMO ZAGREB

2007-12-20T23:35:00.001+08:00

Kick off : 3.45am

League : UEFA Cup

Preview : Link

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FREAKTIPS PREVIEW

Rennes required at least a 3 goal margin win to qualify to the next round of the UEFA cup.
Newly appointed coach Guy Lacombe would like to start his coaching life at Rennes with a win tonite. That would prove to be an early Christmast gift to the fans at home.
With the new coach at helm, Rennes players would be out to prove their credibility. A credible performance tonite might be ensure the players a regular team start in the future matches.
Playing at home, Rennes should have have the advantage of the home crowd and I certainly hope they do not dissapoint tonite.
Lastly my odds calculation favors Rennes.

VERDICT : RENNES -0.25 FT (3 STAR BET)

HAMBURGER vs BASEL (21 Dec 2007)

2007-12-20T22:57:00.000+08:00

Kickoff : 3.45am

League : UEFA CUP

Early preview from Soccernet : Link

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FREAKTIPS PREVIEW

To cut a long story short, I shall summarize my pick in point format:

Hamburger although has qualified for the next round along with Basel would like to go for a win tonite. Qualifying top of the table and maintaining their 100% undefeated record would add another feather to Hamburger's excellent performance this season.

Since the game is played at Hamburg, there is less fatigue for the players as compared to the travelling Basel.

Odds calculation favor Hamburg. As I have said in my previous post, I favor alot on my odds calculation, stats and team news serves to add on to the confidence of my pick.

VERDICT : HAMBURGER -1 FT (1 STAR) & HAMBURGER OVER 2.5FT (1 STAR)

CHINA vs ENERGY COTTBUSS - FRIENDLY

2007-12-20T19:01:00.000+08:00

There is something weird about the one major site offering 1x2. But I shall leave it as it is. On the team form: China squad last played an international games was somewhere near October. Energy Cottbuss just completed a game with the China U23 squad, managing only a draw against them. Today we shall see the China Men playing against Cottbuss. With weary legs after a punishing Bundesliga, clearly it has shown that Energy players are tired and could only churn out a draw against the China youngster. My stakes on China Men to win tonite at home.

Verdict : China -0.25 FT (1 STAR BET)

UEFA CUP PREVIEW - 21 Dec 2007

2007-12-20T16:17:00.000+08:00

Dissapointing pick on Panionios last night. They threw away their best chance of qualifying to the next round of UEFA Cup by self destructing against Bordeaux last night. About an hour before the kickoff, there were some major changes in the Panionios odds whereby the payout for Panionios -0.75 increased from (0.86) to (-0.93). Comes to show that some news regarding the Panionios match before kickoff have affected punters confidence on Panionios that night.

Putting last night dissapointing pick aside, I shall make an early preview first on a couple of UEFA games tonite. There will be come crucial match tonite and I shall give an early preview in advance. Final picks will be put out later depending on odds changes.

Match 1 : Az Alkmaar vs Everton

Az Alkmaar requires a win to progress to the next round or a high scoring draw (yet a draw would depend on results from other group matches)
Az Alkmaar go into tonite's match with the longest unbeaten home record in European competion, having gone 32 games without losing at home.
Az will be without suspended striker Ferreira Ali and injured frontman Moussa Dembele. Also on the injury list are Joey Didulica (concussion, ankle), Stijn Schaars (ankle), Gijs Luirink (knee) and Maarten Martens (knee).
Ferreira Ali and Moussa Dembele are the 2 strikers having scored for Az in the UEFA competition, other strikers have yet to score in this competition.
Everton left 5 main players at home Ayegbeni Yakubu, Mikel Arteta, Tim Cahill, Joseph Yobo and goalkeeper Tim Howard stayed behind. Leon Osman (toe) and Phil Neville (knock) are out with injuries. Long term absentees for Everton are Alan Stubbs and Nuno Valente.
Everton have already qualified and would be looking ahead of this weekends cruncher against Man. Utd.

Match 2 : Larissa vs Nurnberg

Nurnberg travel to Larissa knowing that a win will ensure their qualification to the next round of the UEFA cup.
If Nurnberg were to draw, they can only qualify if Az loses at home to Everton.
Nurnberg have been knocked out of the German Cup and currently languishing at the bottom three of the Bundesliga.
Larissa's coach, Georgios Donis have pledge to the fans that his team will go for the win tonite.
Consideration would be given to Larissa on whether how much they need to win this match against Nurnberg given the fact that they are facing Olympiakos Piraeus this weekend.
On form Brazilian midfielder Cleyton is on goal scoring form and should be appearing for Larissa tonite.
Nurnberg will be able to bring a fully fit squad to Greece with only Matthew Spiranovic the only casualty.

Match 3 : AEK Athens vs Villareal

AEK Athens will qualify for the next round if they beat Villareal tonite at home.
Villarreal has already qualified to the next round of the UEFA cup.
AEK Athens will be without injured midfield duo Akis Zikos and Manu.
Although Villarreal have already qualified for the next round, coach Manuel Pallegrini has name a full squad to Greece, bringing along Giuseppe Rossi and Nihat Kahveci who have scored 14 goals between them this season. Two main players for Villareal that would be missing this game are Josico and Gonzalo Rodriguez.

Match 4 : Rennes vs Dinamo Zagreb

Rennes will make it to the next round if they win against Dinamo by a three-goal margin.
Dinamo will qualify to the next round if they can beat Rennes by a two goal margin.
Both teams would be going on all out attack tonite.
Rennes injury list included their captian Etienne Didot and left winger Sylvain Marveaux.
Rennes coach intend to deploy at three man strike force that consist of Sylvain Wiltord, Mickael Pagis and Jimmy Briand.
Dinamo has a 12 point lead in their domestic league and should not have to worry about their upcoming league games before the Christmas break.

INTER MILAN vs REGGINA (20 Dec 2007)

2007-12-20T01:19:00.000+08:00

Kickoff : 3.45am

League : COPA Italia

Preview from info obtain from AB forum:

A very good game in prospective here. Two sides with very different objectives here. Reggina is fighting to not be in the bottom of the table in Serie A, and Inter is clearly the better side in Italian soccer, without loses this year and very results, such as 1-4 against Roma away. For this match Inter will make some changes, as usual in this competitions, so we could count with this squad: Orlandoni, Rivas, Materazzi, Samuel and Fatic in defence; Solari, Pele, Burdisso and Cesar in midfield; Crespo and Balotelli in attacking. I think this is a very good team. Strong defence and very good midfield. The attack with Crespo is win for sure! The Inter coach, Roberto Mancini, told on press conference that is team will enter on the field to win this match and added that Italian Cup is one of the objectives to this year. Reggina by is turn, will also make changes. It will revise Francesco Cozza, while Vigiani, Barreto, Modesto, Aronica, Valdez, Amoruso and Lanzaro will not play more then 45 minutes. This Reggina is clearly fighting for championship stay, no for Italian Cup. I expect a very pressure Inter on the first minutes. A good possibility to win again and remain unbeaten this year.

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FREAKTIPS PREVIEW

Inter is on a three prong assault this season(Coppa, League and CPL) and rotation is necessary for their squad. Yet Inter has a large squad and should have no troubles against Reggina tonite. Even without Viera and Zlatan, Inter has able players on the bench to replace them. I doubt Inter would like to drag this game to a 2nd leg at home due to their tight schedule. I expect Inter to qualify to the quarters tonite.

On the contrary, Inter's upcoming match for this weekend is against AC Milan at home. A vital match for Inter as they face AC in the Milan derby. Pride and bragging rights are at stake here as Inter is out to prove that they are the best team in Italy if they can take 3 points from AC Milan. This single factor itself would swerve my decision tonite on taking Inter tonite. In fact Reggina +1 looks extreamly tempting now. I doubt Inter would go all out tonite and their main players should be rested for this weekend's derby. Strong possibility of a low scoring game tonite.

My odds calculation favors Inter tonite and, I tend to favor on my odds calculation alot. Stuck between both reasoning, I shall go for a small stakes on this match. Inter is too strong even with their backup players featuring tonite. I doubt Inter would want to play the return leg as that would disrupt their packed schedule. On the other hand, Reggina's last 2 games against Inter have ended 0-1 and 0-0 scoreline. Small stakes tonite then on Inter -0.75 FT and TG Under 2.25 FT.

Verdict : Inter -0.75 FT (1 STAR BET) and Tg Under 2.25 FT (1 STAR BET)

UDINESE vs PALERMO (19 Dec 2007)

2007-12-19T22:14:00.000+08:00

Kickoff : 10.30pm

League : Italian Cup

Based entirely on odds calculation, I see Palermo +0.25Ft as a good punt. Both teams have played against each other thrice this year with favorable results for Palermo. Palermo won the first game and second game while drawing the third game.

2 victories in the last 2 games for Palermo, most significantly for defeating Fiorentina 2-0 at home would be a confidence booster for Palermo. Udinese lost away to Catania last weekend. Never the less Udinese have won their last 3 home games. Their last draw at home, coincidentally is to their opponent tonite, Palermo.

It seems Palermo is the bogey team for Udinese and after hitting two league victories back to back, Palermo should be able to escape with a draw tonite.

Verdict : Palermo +0.25 (3 Star) and Palermo to Draw (1 Star)

APOEL NICOSIA vs AO AGIA NAPA

2007-12-19T21:39:00.000+08:00

This match pits Agia Napa currently playing in the second division against Apoel Nicosia who is currently second in the 1st Division of the Cyprus League. Statistically, Apoel Nicosia should post a comfortable win against Agia Napa. Apoel is head and shoulders above Agia Napa in terms of quality. The current AH is offered to Apoel -2 and the return is only 0.62 for every dollar punt. Shows that punters are staking lots of money on Apoel to clear their AH. Its hard to perform any comparision for this match as both teams are playing in different divisions. The problem would be to determine what would be Apoel line-up tonite. Will Apoel be playing with their first eleven or offering reserve players to start tonite. I guess the 2nd option would most likely be the scenario for tonite.

Odds calculation hints that I should take Agia Napa +2 tonite, but for such a large handicap given, the calculation might not be that accurate. Besides, I have witness numerous cases where team with payout of 0.62 would most likely clear the AH offered. In this case, Apoel would most likely clear the handicap offered (based on trend and observation).

A small bet tonite then on Agia +2 FT and Apoel -1 FH. That would be a wise decision. If Apoel were to peak, they would be able to create goals in first half. If the scenario goes the other way in which Apoel is unable to score in the first half, then Agia +2 FT would be safe bet as it is unlikely that Apoel would be hitting 3 goals in 2nd half.

Verdict : Agia +2 FT and Apoel -1 FH (both 1 STAR BETS)

UEFA CUP PREVIEW - 20 Dec 2007

2007-12-19T15:13:00.000+08:00

I have selected 2 match for analysis later tonite. Early odds movement indicate these two matches are worthy of a preview. The matches are:

~~1. Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Aalborg~~

2. Panionios vs Bordeaux

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Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Aalborg

Early Preview from Soccernet

Hapoel Tel-Aviv will need a helping hand from their rivals if they are to progress to the UEFA Cup knockout stages with a win in their final Group G game against AaB on Wednesday.
The Israeli outfit sit fourth in their pool after a 2-1 win at Getafe last time out, a result that snapped their winless streak in the group stage.
A win against already-eliminated AaB will only be sufficient to progress if Getafe can beat Anderlecht in the night's other Group G game.
A stalemate at Coliseum Alfonso Perez would leave Hapoel needing to win by at least five goals against their Danish opponents, while an Anderlecht win would leave Hapoel needing to better Getafe's goal difference to stay alive in the competition.
Qualification to the round of 32 would be a huge fillip for new Hapoel coach Eli Gutmann, who has so far failed to turn around the club's stuttering domestic fortunes since taking over as the permanent successor to Guy Luzon on December 4.
A 1-0 loss to Betar Jerusalem on Sunday left Hapoel bottom of the Israeli top flight with six points from 13 games.
And with a host of new faces at the club, including Fabio Junior and Reuven Oved, Gutmann needs to make his new charges click as a unit as soon as possible.
Two defeats and a draw mean AaB have no chance of progressing to the knockout stage but Erik Hamren is adamant his SAS-Ligaen leaders will bow out of Europe on a high.
Hamren told club website www.aabsport.dk: ``We shall end our UEFA Cup in a professional manner. We are determined to finish the year in good form.''
Forwards Rade Prica, Ronnie Schwartz and Patrick Kristensen have not been named in AaB's 17-man travelling party, while midfielder Siyabonga Nomvethe is also rested.
Defender Martin Pedersen misses out through illness.

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FREAKTIPS PREVIEW

Due to odds changes, I have decided to skip this game. Sincere apologies.

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Panionios vs Bordeaux

Early Preview from Soccernet

Galatasaray look set to be the team that loses out when Panionios take on an under-strength Bordeaux on Wednesday in the final round of Group H action.
Les Girondins, who have already qualified from the group stages, have left all their big names at home ahead of their trip to Greece.
The likes of Ulrich Rame, Alou Diarra, Wendel and Marouane Chamakh will stay back in France to prepare for Saturday's trip to Sochaux in the final Ligue 1 game before the winter break.
Panionios will therefore start a heavy favourites to clinch the win they need to secure a top-three finish in the pool and progression to the Round of 32.
The Greeks are a point clear of fourth-placed Galatasaray, who need to beat Austria Vienna and hope Panionios slip up.
Bordeaux coach Laurent Blanc, whose side have won all three of their group games, has named a 15-man squad that includes a batch of youngsters.
Only three players in the party, experienced defender David Jemmali and attacking duo Jussie and Fernando Cavenaghi, can be classed as regular contenders for a first-team spot.
Playmaker Johan Micoud is injured, although he probably would not have travelled anyway.
Bordeaux came from two goals down to draw 2-2 with Marseille on Sunday, and they remain in the top three in Ligue 1.
Panionios, meanwhile, secured a 1-0 victory at Austria Vienna last time out gave them a fighting chance of qualifying from the pool.
Defender Ivica Majstorovic scored the winner on that occasion and is hoping to repeat his heroics on Wednesday.
``I hope I can score the winner again,'' Majstorovic told the clubs official website, www.panionios.gr.
``Of course my job is to defend rather than to score goals but I would not say no to another goal like the one I scored in Vienna.
``I think it was the most important in my career so far.''
Ewald Lienen's men head into the game on the back of a historic home triumph over Greek giants and fellow UEFA Cup hopefuls Panathinaikos at the weekend - the 1-0 win was Panionios' first home victory over their Athens rivals in 28 years.
``The win over Pana has certainly helped our spirits,'' Majstorovic added. ``It was a tough victory to get and at a time when we really needed a good result in the Greek Super League.
``We are feeling really confident psychologically and I think the climate among the squad will help us win.''

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FREAKTIPS PREVIEW

As stated in the Soccernet preview, Bordeaux would be travelling to Greece with an understrenght squad. The game against Panionios seem have no significance for Bordeaux as they have already qualified to the next round of the UEFA Cup. Most of their starting eleven have been left behind to rest and recuperate as they prepare for their Sochaux this weekend.

For the Greek team Panionios, today's UEFA match against Bordeaux would be a crucial one. They need to win tonite's game in order to stand a chance to qualify for the next round. The win over Panathinaikos should give Panionios a confidence booster ahead of the game tonite. Panionios knows the stake at hand and that their qualification to the next round are theirs to decide.

I shall not rule out a draw here, but I trust Panionios to win this match tonite against Bordeaux. Too much is at stake for Panionios to concede even a draw tonite.

Verdict : Panionios -0.75 FT (5 STAR BET) and Panionios to Draw (1 STAR BET)
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MANCHESTER CITY vs TOTTENHAM - 19 Dec 2007

2007-12-18T23:33:00.000+08:00

Kickoff : 3.45am (19 Dec 2007)

League : Carling Cup

Early preview from Soccernet :

Juande Ramos has challenged Tottenham to build on their first domestic away win of the season and end Manchester City's perfect home record.
Spurs travel to the City of Manchester stadium for a Carling Cup quarter-final having finally claimed three Barclays Premier League away points at Portsmouth.
City have won all 10 home matches this season under former England boss Sven-Goran Eriksson but they lost at White Hart Lane recently, as Spurs won the first of two straight league games for the first time this season.
Despite already enjoying success over City, Ramos is in no doubt of the task at hand.
He said: ``City's home record is very impressive and it will be difficult to get any reward there, but if we play as well as we can, we can do it. It is a competition we are happy to be in and a competition we want to win.
``I don't think the match against City at our stadium will have any bearing on the game up there but I believe my players are getting to know what is expected of them. I've been very pleased with the last few games.''
Tottenham reached the Carling Cup semi-finals last season only to be defeated over two legs by rivals Arsenal.
Their league form ensured they did not miss out on a UEFA Cup place as they finished fifth in the table.
But their hopes of a third consecutive continental campaign could rest on a Wembley triumph.
Still in the wrong half of the table nearly halfway through the season, midfielder Jermaine Jenas nevertheless believes Spurs must aim for Europe again.
He said: ``We are a club that belongs in Europe and the manager belongs to European success, too. He's won the last two UEFA Cup's with Sevilla.
``He's changed us, there's no doubt about that. We seem more compact, a lot stronger and there are fewer gaps opening up in defence.
Ramos has lost just one of his 10 games in charge of Spurs. His first game at the helm was October's Carling Cup fourth round win over Blackpool. He is sure to field a strong side tomorrow.
But he may still be without centre-back Michael Dawson, who had to pull out of the Portsmouth match after suffering migraine attacks and being admitted to hospital for temporary checks.
Another headache - especially with Robbie Keane still out suspended - is the dilemma of who fills Tottenham's front line and Ramos seems no nearer solving it.
Jermain Defoe looked much more of a threat than £17million signing Darren Bent when he replaced him against Pompey but the former West Ham forward has still not started for Ramos.
Ramos would only say: ``We have four strikers who are all at a very high level and we must try to use them all as much as we can.''
Manchester City goalkeeper Joe Hart will get the chance of his young life to stake a claim for a permanent place in the team.
Manager Sven-Goran Eriksson has recalled the 20-year-old prospect for the match.
Andreas Isaksson drops out after four matches, and there is more at stake for both men than a place in the semis, because Eriksson will decide after the game who will be his number one choice for the rest of the campaign.
It is a straight fight between the young Englishman, formerly of Shrewsbury, and the Sweden international - with Kasper Schmeichel currently out on loan to Cardiff.
Eriksson said: ``It is very close between them, although we have planned for a long time to play Hart in this game.
``They have been prepared for it and will no doubt be waiting on Wednesday to hear what I have to say. I have been pleased with the attitude of all three goalkeepers.
``They have been fantastic, very professional and are working extremely hard. It is difficult choosing a number one but I have to do it.''
``I wanted to give Andreas Isaksson a run because it is important not to judge people without giving them a chance.
``It is very difficult for a goalkeeper if they are playing one match in, one match out. It is not a good solution.''
Italian striker Rolando Bianchi should retain his place in the starting line-up, after scoring his second goal in two games in the 4-2 victory against Bolton .
Eriksson said: ``It will be hard to put him back on the bench. He will start.''
Elano is also set for a run-out after a three-match absence with a hamstring injury. Eriksson decided not to risk the Brazil midfielder against Bolton.
Eriksson said: ``He wants to play every game. It is no secret he has been very important to us and behind a lot of our goals.''

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FREAKTIPS REVIEW

Todays Carling Cup quarter finals pits Sven's Man City against Ramos's Tottenham. An interesting match as both coaches promising to field their strongest team tonite. With the semi-final berth and a chance at qualifying for Europe next season at stake, both teams would be going out for a win tonite.

Both teams meet once this season, seeing Tottenham coming out 2-1 winners at White Hart Lane. Tonite would be a whole different scenario as Tottenham travel to Man City who has yet to lose a single match at home this season. Never the less, Tottenham would be entering this game in high spirits after stealing 3 points from on form Portsmouth last weekend. Man City on the hand took their 10th home victory against Bolton last weekend, scoring 4 goals and conceding 2 in that match.

Leaky defense from Sven's squad have seen them conceding 6 goals in their last 4 games. Tottenham on the other hand is facing a defensive crisis with central defenders Michael Dawson, Ledley King and Ricardo Rocha are expected to be out, along with full-backs Gareth Bale and Benoit Assou-Ekotto. Tottenham strike force have been the major strenght for the last couple matches, scoring vital winners to make up for their weakened back four.

Tonite's game would see me going for Total goals instead of handicap bets. I would expect super sub Defoe to start tonite along with Berbatov. Both players are lethal when given the scoring opportunities. Man City would be depending on Bianchi and veteran Darius Vassell to provide the firepower. Midfield maestro Elanor(back from injury) and Martin Petrov should give be giving Tottenham's a hard game tonite. On the other end, Jenas, Malbranque, Prince and Lennon would form an attack minded midfield for Tottenham. I am expecting an interesting midfield battle tonite with plenty of scoring chances created.

Verdict : Tottenham Over 2.5 FT (3 STAR BET)

ENPPI Cairo - Al Masry Port Said

2007-12-18T23:11:00.000+08:00

Kickoff : 11.30pm

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League : Egypt League

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Yet again, the whole analyse for this game is purely on odds and stats. This game pits ENPPI (number 8th in League) against Al Masry (number 11th in League). Both teams are seperated by just one point in terms of league points.

ENPPI last 2 games have ended in draws. Their last win was against Al Ittihad at home on Nov 6th. After which they suffered defeat away to Al Ahly(1st in League), draw at home against El Geish(3rd in League) and draw away to Suez Cement (16th in League). ENPPI does not have an excellent record playing away, but their home record is respectable especially when playing against team sitting above them in the league. (Stats available on the internet)

Al Masry last game away ended up in a stalemate against Baladeyet (14th in League). Their away record is not at all impressive, whereby after playing 7 away games, they managed 2 draws and 5 losses. Apart from the draw against Baladeyet, they held Arab Contractors (8th in League) to a stalemate. Holding Arab Contractors is acceptable as Arab Contractors has yet to register a single win after 7 home games.

The oddsmakers are offering a generous -0.5 AH to Enppi which is a good sign. I would have skip this match if the AH offered is -0.25. In summary, Enppi stand a good chance to increase their home record tonite to 3 wins. Small stake on Enppi -0.5 tonite.

Verdict : Enppi -0.5 FT (1 STAR BET)

WUHAN vs ARMINIA BIELEFELD & CHINA U23 vs ENERGY COTTBUSS (FRIENDLY)

2007-12-18T18:19:00.000+08:00

Some news about the friendly :

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German clubs in Asia as league goes on world offensive (DPA) 17 December 2007 HAMBURG - Three Bundesliga clubs have set off for tours of Asia this week as the German Football League (DFL) steps up its efforts to boost its image and marketing opportunities in the region. Borussia Dortmund are in Indonesia while Energie Cottbus and Arminia Bielefeld have dates in China as part of a DFL initiative during the Bundesliga winter break. It had been planned to have a fourth club, Eintracht Frankfurt, in Vietnam, but that country’s federation withdrew because of scheduling difficulties.
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Germany still has a lot of catching up to do in marketing the Bundesliga abroad where the English Premier League, the Spanish Primera Division and the Italian Serie A are far more popular. Although the four European leagues have marketed some 460 million euros (660 million dollars) worldwide this season, the Bundesliga share is only around 4 per cent, compared to 50 per cent by the Premier League. While football continues in England, Spain and Italy, the winter break in Germany thus provides an ideal opportunity to make some inroads, particular in Asian countries.

‘Asia is an important market for us which is why we are deliberately active there,’ said Joerg Daubitzer, the DFL’s director of rights and licensing. ‘Our TV presence in 169 countries is now comparable with our competitors. However we need to continue working to capture more broadcasting time and to participate in the above-average growth rates in Asia.’ For this reason the DFL is concentrating on countries such as China and other Asian countries with fast-growing economies where there is a greater opportunity to capture a share of merchandising than in say Japan where the market is already well established.

Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich made a quick visit to Hong Kong in the summer for a match against Brazilian side Sao Paolo. But the German clubs now in China and Indonesia will not only be playing matches but have scheduled charity and sponsoring events as well as activities such as youth training. Bielefeld, who play Wuhan FC on Tuesday and Shenhua SVA SMEF on Thursday, see themselves as ambassadors for the Bundesliga in China. ‘China is an enormous market from which about 400 million euros flows into the Premier League while the Bundesliga is getting merely 20 million from its marketing overall,’ Armenia president Hans-Hermann Schwick told the club magazine. He predicted that the top German teams will soon also be heading east to promote the league, while increased cooperation will lead to increasingly more Chinese players joining Bundesliga clubs.

One player already in Germany is 27-year-old Shao Jiayi of Energie Cottbus who will be a top draw for the crowd when Cottbus take on the Chinese Olympic team in Foshan on Tuesday and the Chinese national team on Thursday in Guangzhou. Shao, capped 43 times for China, is one of the reasons for increased interest shown in the Bundesliga by Chinese fans. ‘The English Premier League is the clear number one but I think the Bundesliga now comes up behind it,’ he told Kicker sports magazine. Borussia Dortmund, who have the biggest average home crowds in Germany, are aiming to spread their popularity in Indonesia where on Wednesday they come up against the Indonesia national team in Jakarta. It is the second time this season Dortmund have travelled abroad to boost marketing opportunities after a friendly in Poland in early October against Legia Warsaw. Dortmund’s activities in Indonesia include a training session on Tuesday at which 100 local young players are invited. In the evening the team will attend a gala dinner with 200 guests including politicians and celebrities.

The DFL is launching an international marketing group next year which aims to more than double the Bundesliga’s current worldwide annual marketing income between the summer of 2009 and 2015. But that there is still much to do was demonstrated in South Africa where, according to Kicker, German football missed an opportunity to increase its presence there when it was notably absent from Soccerex in Johannesburg, the world’s biggest football fair. The DFL is attempting to secure a television contract in South Africa where the Bundesliga hardly features with football fans. According to Kicker, fans can’t even find the Bundesliga football results in the newspapers, and the only German players who mean anything are Michael Ballack and Jens Lehmann - because they both play in England.

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FREAKTIPS PREDICTION:

No news about player line up and all. Never the less, since this is more of an exhibition match, I would expect an entertaining game for both friendlies with lots of goals to please the crowd. Entertaining soccer to boast the names of the visiting German clubs should be the main agenda today for both matches. Entertaining football = Lots of goals = More money and fans from China.

Verdict :

Arminia Bielefeld Over 2.75 FT (1 STAR)

& Energy Cottbuss Over 2.75 FT (1 STAR)

FC KOLN(-0.75) vs FC KAISERSLAUTERN - 18 Dec 2007

2007-12-17T20:13:00.000+08:00

Kickoff : 3.15 am

League : German Bundesliga 2

Early preview from Soccernet unavailable.

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FREAKTIPS PREVIEW

Lower leagues such as German Bundesliga 2, it almost impossible to find the latest news regarding the injuries, team confidence, etc. Therefore, tonite's match review between FC Koln and Kaiserslautern would be purely stats based and odds movement based.

Lets have a look at the head to head record between these 2 teams :

May 20, 07
2. Bundesliga
FC Kaiserslautern
2 - 2
FC Köln

Dec 15, 06
2. Bundesliga
FC Köln
2 - 2
FC Kaiserslautern

Feb 7, 06
1. Bundesliga
FC Kaiserslautern
2 - 2
FC Köln

I have omitted older head to head records as I think that would be irrelevant to be taken into consideration. All past 3 games between both team have ended up stalemate and coincidently the same score, which is 2-2.

Formbook on FC Koln

FC Koln has won their last 4 games at home. Their last home defeat was to FC Freiburg(1-3) on the 7th September 2007.

Home stats for FC Koln

Formbook on FC Kaiserslautern

FC Kaiserslautern last away game saw them winning a thrilling 7 goal encounter (3-4) against St Pauli. Apart from that, FC Kaiserslautern has yet to show any outstanding performance playing in away games. Apart from holding a couple of mid table teams to a draw, I doubt FC Kaiser is able to hold FC Koln to a draw tonite.

Away stats for FC Kaiser

Summary

Oddsmakers are offering a double handicap for this match at -0.75 and -1. Currently as of writing, I believe the handicap is at -0.75. Sticking to my odds calculation concepts, I am on FC Koln tonite. (1 point for FC Koln)
FC Kaiser has a terrible away record as previewed earlier. I doubt there would be any surprises for this match. FC Koln would be looking to extend their home win record by registering a comfortable win against lowly Kaiser tonite. (1 point for FC Koln)
Past head to head record between both team showed that the last 3 games have ended up with a 2-2 draw. FC Kaiser last 2 aways matches have ended up with more then 2.5 goals. FC Koln last 5 home matches have ended up with more then 2.5 goals. Based on historical statistics, I shall place stake a small amount on FC Kaiser to draw and Over 2.75 FT.
FC Koln winning tonite would see them move to third in the league before the Christmas break hence placing them in contention for promotion to the German Bundesliga next season. (1 point for FC Koln)

Verdict : FC Koln -0.75 (3 Star),

FC Koln Over 2.75(1 Star)

and FC Koln to Draw (1 Star)

3 Star indicates - 30 units bet placed, 1 Star indicates - 10 units bet placed

MATCH 8 : BORDEAUX -0.5 vs MARSEILLE (17 DEC 2007)

2007-12-17T00:58:00.000+08:00

Kickoff : 3.45am

League : French Division 1

FREAKTIPS PREVIEW

Two of the former big guns in the French League. An interesting statistic about this match is that Marseille has never registered a win at Bordeaux for over 30 years.

That aside, Marseille's Europe inspiration were crushed by the Reds last Wednesday, and the scoreline clearly showed that Marseille is a club facing a major dip in form currently. Sitting at the 15th position in the French League is not helping the team much in terms of challenging for Europe next season. I do not expect Marseille to bounce back immediately from the 4-0 thrashing inflicted by Liverpool just a few days ago. Not in this game against arch rival Bordeaux who is playing at home.

Bordeaux on the other hand is still in good position to aim for UEFA or even a Champions League appearance next season. They have got to start winning games, especially league games played at home ground.

Reviews from Soccernet seems to hint on Marseille players and coach intending to hold Bordeaux to a draw at home and go for the win against Le Mans in the next game. With the AH offered at -0.5, it would be tempting to eat Marseille and hope the match would end in a draw of a win for Marseille.

Likely a defensive game from Marseille, with Bordeaux applying the majority of the pressure in this game. Odds monitoring at the time of writing this review favors me on Bordeaux -0.5. I shall stick with that and hope to see a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline in favor of Bordeaux.

VERDICT : BORDEAUX -0.5 FT (3 STAR), BORDEAUX DRAW (FUN BET)

MATCH 7 (RODA -1.5 vs SPARTA) - 14 DEC 2007

2007-12-14T22:07:00.000+08:00

Kickoff : 3.30am

League : Dutch Eredivisie

Early preview from Soccernet :

KERKRADE, December 13 (Eredivisie) - Roda JC coach Raymond Atteveld has urged his side to produce a repeat of their winning performance against PSV Eindhoven when they face Sparta Rotterdam on Friday.
The Kerkrade club were in magnificent form to beat PSV 4-2 at the Phillips Stadium and extend their unbeaten run to four games.
That win was also Roda`s third in four games to leave them fifth in the Eredivisie and Atteveld is eager to see them continue their good form.
``For Roda it's important that we continue to play like we have in the last weeks. If that happens I am confident about the result,'' said Atteveld.
Vincent Lachambre (heel), Jamaique Vandamme (knee), Elbekay Bouchiba (calf) are all injured for Roda, while Jan-Pauls Saeijs serves a one-match ban.
Despite claiming their first league win of the season over NEC Nijmegen last week, Sparta are second from bottom in the Eredivisie.
With only a point separating the Rotterdammers from safety, coach Adri van Tiggelen is eager for his side to move out of the relegation zone with a good result against Roda.
``This game comes at the right time and is very important. Roda won in Eindhoven and they will think they are much stronger than us and that is our chance,'' he said.
``We really need more points to get ourselves of the bottom three.''
Goalkeeper Harald Wapenaar (back), Edouard Duplan (foot) and Kim Jaggy (knee) are all sidelined for Sparta through injury.
Olaf Lindenbergh and Nourdin Boukhari will also miss out through suspension.

_______________________________

FREAKTIPS PREVIEW

Ah Dutch League, famous for their outrageous high scoring matches. Lets have a short summary on the forms of both teams playing tonite.

Roda JC

Roda created an unlikely upset in their last game away to PSV Eindhoven. Sadly that was the game that I took PSV as my 3 star bet. Roda left PSV Eindhoven in the lurch by taking a 4 goal lead. The crucial mistake I made here was that I forgot that PSV was reserving their players for the crucial Champions League Tie against Inter Milan(which they lost, lol). Ok, back to Roda, undeniably Roda is one of the most outstanding team in the Eredivisie at the moment. Their last 3 match have seen them defeating Vitesse at home 3-2 (-0.5AH) and FC Groningen 5-1(-0.25AH), and of course PSV 2-4. Roda has the fire power to score and they arent shy in pulling the trigger when the opportunity arises. Tonite will be the same, with Roda players in high spirit to earn their 4th consecutive victory with a large scoreline of course. A win would see Roda leapfrog Heenreveen into 4th placing of the Dutch league, and they most rightly deserve too base on their current form. No major injuries on their players and would likely see Roda maintain the same squad which humilated PSV last weekend.

Sparta Rotterdam

Albeit posting their first victory last weekend against NEC Nejmegen, Sparta has yet to prove that they can provide any resistance against the top five team in the Dutch League. In fact they were given a lesson in football from Utrecht 2 weekends ago, conceding an amazing 7 goals againsts them. This season, Sparta and Excelsior are certainly the beating boys of the league and most likely would see both team relegated next season. Sparta's away record clearly shows that they have lost their last 5 away games and this game against Roda would likely add the 6th defeat to their away games resume.

Summary

1. Roda players are in high spirit after the defeating PSV and would like to carry on their momentum in this game against Sparta.

2. Winning this game would propel Roda to fourth place and increase their chances to qualify for the UEFA cup next season. Taking full 3 points against beating boy Sparta would be their main priority tonite.

3. Sparta has yet to prove anything this season and would most likely remain unproven tonite.

4. Bookmakers open double odds at 1.5 and 1.75, an excellent decision that strengthens my believe that Sparta would be crushed to nite.

VERDICT : 20 units on Roda -1.75 FT (3 STAR),

30 units on Roda To Win (5 STAR)

COLO-COLO vs UNIVERSIDAD - 14 DEC 2007

2007-12-14T09:17:00.000+08:00

I posted the review for this match right before I sleep in Asianbookie Forum and was too tired to update. Anyway, just to post it here for record purposes. Of course the link to the thread would be included here to proof that I aint bullshitting about my picks. Link

Not much information could be obtained regarding both Chilliean team, therefore this analysis was entirely based on head to head, home and way records and some instinct based on the odds offered by Oddsmakers.

I selected Colo-colo to clear the -0.25 Asian Handicap offered, and set up a safety net by buying Draw in the 1x2 offering a payout of 1 to 3. The final result was as expected with Colo-colo obtaining a 2 goal lead heading for the return leg at Universidad.

The review :

Not much info that I can gather with regards to both team except for their past results and head to head. Not much that can be predicted from this match except to speculate from the odds offered. A thing that bothers me is that Colo-colo, sitting at top of the Chiliean Premier league against Universidad 13th in position, yet the handicap being offered here is Colo-colo -0.25. Universidad has been on a good run, recording 5 victories in a row:

Dec 09, 07 Primera Division Univ de Chile 2 - 1 Cobresal Salvador

Dec 01, 07 Primera Division Cobresal Salvador 2 - 4 Univ de Chile

Nov 24, 07 Primera Division Univ de Chile 3 - 0 Cobresal Salvador

Nov 11, 07 Primera Division CD Everton 1 - 3 Univ de Chile

Nov 07, 07 Primera Division Univ de Chile 2 - 2 O Higgins Rancagua

Nov 03, 07 Primera Division Univ de Chile 3 - 2 Union Espanola

Oct 28, 07 Primera Division Univ de Chile 2 - 1 Lota Schwager

As for Colo-colo their last game agains O'higgin ended up in a draw. But the match was meaningless since Colo-colo has a 5 goal advantage from their first leg game again O'higgin.

Dec 08, 07 Primera Division CD Colo Colo 1 - 1 O Higgins Rancagua

Dec 02, 07 Primera Division O Higgins Rancagua 0 - 5 CD Colo Colo

Nov 25, 07 Primera Division Palestino Santiago 0 - 1 CD Colo Colo

Nov 11, 07 Primera Division CD Colo Colo 4 - 0 CD Huachipato

Nov 04, 07 Primera Division Univ Catolica 0 - 1 CD Colo Colo

Nov 01, 07 Primera Division CD Colo Colo 1 - 4 Audax Italiano

Oct 27, 07 Primera Division Santiago Wanderers 0 - 4 CD Colo Colo

Oddsmakers would have done their research on the past stats from both team and would have offered the -0.25 handicap to lure punters to eat Universidad base on their excellent record for the last 7 games (6 win and 1 draw). I shall try the opposite, staking my money on Colo-colo -0.25 Ft. I believe they will win the first leg at home. Colo-colo would go for the win at their homeground hence giving them an advantage before facing Universidad again for the 2nd leg. Universidad afterall have been undefeated at home for the last 5 home games.

Verdict : Colo-colo -0.25FT & Colo-colo Draw (for safety)

Both bets 1 STAR BETs.

AC MILAN -1.25 vs URAWA REDS (5 STAR)

2007-12-13T14:30:00.000+08:00

Kickoff : 6.30pm

League : World Club Championship (Semi-Final 2)

YOKOHAMA, Japan, Dec 11 (Reuters) - A sulking striker and a manager apparently facing the bullet hardly provide a solid base from which to launch an assault on the Club World Cup.
AC Milan's preparations have been far from smooth, despite red-carpet treatment in Japan and the avalanche of awards recently bestowed on playmaker Kaka.
The European champions take on Japan's Urawa Reds in their semi-final on Thursday with Brazilian Ronaldo still injured and increasingly isolated from the squad.
The former world player of the year, out with a calf strain, has been cutting a forlorn figure, visiting the spa of the team's luxury hotel while his team mates train in Yokohama.
Speculation that Milan want to bring in former Chelsea boss Jose Mourinho to replace Carlo Ancelotti at the end of the season has done little to ease the tensions with the club.
'The tension and the pressure are mounting,' said Massimo Ambrosini, Milan's de facto captain with the 39-year-old Paolo Maldini rarely starting in his final season.
'I feel them of course. We have had to wait a week for the semi-final which is too long. We all having the feeling that this is a date with destiny.
'It would be huge to take such an important trophy as the Club World Cup back to Italy with us.'
Kickoff : 6.30pm

League : World Club Championship (Semi Final)

Early preview from Soccernet :

Milan are slight favourites to win the seven-team tournament despite their current league position of 10th -- 19 points adrift of Serie A leaders Inter Milan.
'This could be the turning point of our season,' said Ambrosini. 'Nineteen points is a big gap. We lost too much ground early but we still have the Champions League.'
An expected win over Asian champions Urawa will set up a likely final against South American Libertadores Cup holders Boca Juniors in Yokohama on December 16.
The Argentine giants face Tunisia's Etoile Sahel in Wednesday's first semi-final in Tokyo.
Kaka, meanwhile, has become the new darling of the Japanese media and fans, who scream his name during training -- treatment once reserved for former England captain David Beckham.
'My only thought is to take the Club World Cup back to Milan,' said the Brazilian, clearly less at ease with the yelling fans than Beckham.
'Not many people can say they've won this competition. It is a wonderful opportunity for me and the team. It would be silly to let it slip.'

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FREAKTIPS PREVIEW

Hard to decide for this match as for which team will clear the Asian Handicap offered. No doubt AC Milan would most likely qualify for the finals, but news have been spreading around about the Milan team being in turmoil now. The spotlight of the media have been targetted on Ronaldo and Ancelotti. The striker for his isolation from the team and the coach who's head is on the chopping board by end of this season. Milan's faltering start in the league seeing them trailing Inter Milan by 19 points, has only strenghten the rumour that The One Mourinho would be taking over come next season.

Urawa would be on high spirits after a convincing 3-1 win against Sepahan. Playing at home country Japan, the weather and pitch conditions would definitely be on their side. An opportunity to knock out Milan and qualify for the finals would make up for the dissapointment of losing the league title a couple of weeks back.

Lets do a comparison on the advantages and disadvantages of both teams

Fans : No doubt Urawa playing in Japan would have the majority of the crowd behind their backs for this match. Never the less Milan has a large fan base in Japan as well (probably made up from girls who go goo-goo gaa-gaa over Kaka). I would say the fan support for this match would be rather balanced out here.

Conditions : The pitch and weather as well as the time zone are perfect for Urawa since the game is held in Yokohama. AC Milan's team though have a week to get accustomized and acclimatized to the temperature and pitch in the Yokohama stadium. Slight edge here for Urawa Reds.

Players : AC Milan's Champions League winning squad is being paraded for this match. In terms of quality and skill, AC Milan is head and shoulders above Urawa. Milan take the point here.

Desire : Urawa of course would be aiming to knock favorites AC Milan and arguably the best team out of this competition. Playing at home with fan support would spurr Urawa players to play their hearts out against Milan. Milan on the other hand has a point to prove. Ancelotti desires for this cup to soften the rumours of him being replaced and his players would definitely want to add the winning medal to their already trophy laden cabinet. Both team has got different agenda yet with equal desire to win. I call it even for both teams in this category.

Odds : Oddsmakers expect Milan to win by at least a single goal from this match. My odds calculation also supports this match for Milan to clear the Asian Handicap offered.

Summary:

Based on the several comparison made above, I see Milan having an edge over Urawa especially in terms of player quality. They have been at big matches and come away with countless victories. The semi-finals of the World Club Championship would have no effect on the confidence and composure of the Milan players. In fact Urawa might be the team suffering from cold feet for this match.

In conclusion, Milan to shine in this match.

Verdict : AC Milan -1.25 FT (5 STAR), & AC Milan Win (5 STAR)

MATCH 6 (ARSENAL-1.5 vs STEAU BUCURESTI) - 13 DEC 2007

2007-12-12T21:12:00.000+08:00

Kickoff : 3.45am

League : Champions League

Early Preview from Soccernet :

Jens Lehmann will make his return to the Arsenal side for the first time in almost four months against Steaua Bucharest in the Champions League on Wednesday night, but manager Arsene Wenger can offer the veteran German goalkeeper no guarantee over his future.
The 38-year-old has not featured for the Gunners since August 19 at Blackburn when he made a second high-profile error of the then fledgling season.
After suffering an elbow injury while on international duty, the German subsequently saw Manuel Almunia stake his claim for the Arsenal number one jersey.
Lehmann was less than impressed by being left warming the bench on his return to full fitness, declaring the whole saga to be a 'humiliation' as speculation continued he was set to leave Emirates Stadium when the transfer window opens in January.
While Wenger has praised the veteran as a 'super professional' and maintains the decision to play Lehmann against the Romanians tomorrow was made last month 'independent of everything else', the Arsenal boss stopped short of indicating the German was a firm part of his long-term plans.
Wenger revealed: 'Lehmann will start in goal tomorrow (Wednesday).
'His attitude has been fantastic and when you look at this man the one thing you cannot fault is he is a super professional. Jens is an example for everybody.
'For every goalkeeper it is good to practice, but at some stage you need to play at a competitive level.
'It is not a present. It is to keep him fit and competitive.
'If Jens plays well it does not create a problem.
'Why should it be a problem if a player plays well? It is a problem if he doesn't play well.'
Wenger maintained: 'For all of us the only target is to do well for the club - and we can only do that if we perform well.
'Jens' long-term future depends on, when you are 38, what you call a long-term future. We haven't spoken about that.
'At the moment I expect him to play well tomorrow.'
However, when asked if he expected Lehmann to remain at Arsenal for the second half of the season, Wenger said: 'I cannot guarantee [that], like for anybody else.'
Arsenal have several players still on the treatment table, including key midfielders Cesc Fabregas, Alex Hleb and Mathieu Flamini.
However, striker Robin van Persie is set to make a welcome return after being out with a knee problem since October 7, and midfielder Abou Diaby has recovered from a back injury.
'Robin looks okay and will be in the squad,' said Wenger.
'I have not made a decision yet whether I will start him or not. But he should play some part.'
With a Barclays Premier League showdown against Chelsea on Sunday, Wenger is in something of a selection quandary ahead of Arsenal's final Champions League Group H game, which will decide their seeding for the knockout stages.
Following the shock defeat at Middlesbrough which ended their unbeaten domestic run, Wenger indicated he will make some changes with young Dane Nicklas Bendtner set to lead the attack.
He said: 'I will rest some players, but I will play a team who is part of my squad.
'However, there is no Carling Cup side. I had one before, but now I feel they are a bit older and all these players have moved upwards now to the first-team squad.
'We have another game on Sunday and there are some players who have played four games on the trot away from home, including Sevilla. Some of them need a little breather.'
Wenger knows his men must put on a performance on Wednesday following their below-par display at the Riverside.
'We have lost a game and know we have not been good, so now of course we want to respond,' he said.
'However, our quality is what we have done in the last six months, not in just one game.
'We know only our own performance is important and not what people say, even more so in the bigger games.
'My squad is very determined and very strong.
'If you had listened to what people said before the season, we would be 10th or 12th in the league and be out of everything. At the moment we are in everything.
'It is not a coincidence - it is down to the mental strength of my team.'
Wenger, meanwhile, must serve a one-match touchline ban following his sending off in the last game against Sevilla at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan Stadium.
However, the Arsenal manager will take it in his stride.
Wenger said: 'I will make my normal preparations with the team as always in our hotel.
'I will, of course, be separated during the game - but I believe it is not a big handicap.'

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FREAKTIPS PREVIEW

______

Arsenal

Emirates, need I say more, the stronghold of the Gunners, with vocal fans behind their backs, eagerly awaiting for the Gunners to once again display their attacking prowness and prove to the world that the defeat to Boro last Sunday was just a minor hiccup.

A convincing victory is needed here at the Emirates to boast confidence and secure top spot in the their Champions League group. Even with a big game coming up this weekend against Chelsea, Arsenal would definitely go for victory today against an already eliminated Steau Bucuresti. Top spot would prevent Arsenal from meeting strongs teams such as Barcelona or Chelsea in the 2nd round.

Convincing win tonite would help boast Arsenal's players confidence ahead of the big league game against Chelsea. Jens Lehman have been promised a start for this match and I am sure he is eager to prove his worth and hopefully regain the number 1 jersey again from Almunia. Van Persie is in the squad and most probably would come on in the 2nd half of the game to give him some match pratice ahead of Chelsea's game. A goal or two perhaps from him. Although Wenger did mention that he would be resting a couple of players, their back four is still a solid one with Gallas marshalling the defence, Gilberto providing the defensive midfield while Walcott giving the midfield an extra edge. Youngster Nicklas Bendtner would start as lone striker tonite and no doubt he will be eager as ever to score goals and eventually try to break into the first 11 lineup. Tonite would be the chance for young Bendtner to return Wenger's trust.

_____________

Steau Bucuresti

Steau Bucuresti have nothing to gain from this game apart from pride. I doubt they would be going all out for this match and might try to go for a draw in this match. Looking at the starting lineup, it looks like Bucuresti would not be starting with 2 defensive players which feature in the first round game against Arsenal at Romania. In fact a couple of players from the bench in the 1st game are being fielded tonite against Arsenal. The squad which held Arsenal to only a 1-0 victory at Romania have been reshuffled, showing that Bucuresti is not intending to give much of a fight tonite. In fact, Bucuresti would most probably concentrate on their upcoming game in the Romania league against Farul Constanta this Saturday. Securing valuable points in their league would be Bucuresti main agenda now.

_______

Summary

Long story aside, I am heavily favoring Arsenal tonite. The reasons are:

Arsenal playing at home(need I say more??), Bucuresti would be entering the lion's den tonite.
Arsenal have not tasted victory from their last 2 premiership game, victory tonite is a must to regain top spot in the group and ensuring a less risky passage in the Champions League.
Convincing win required to boast players confidence ahead of the match against Chelsea.
Persie is back, Walcott and Bendtner starting the match. There is more then enough firepower to destroy Bucuresti twice over.
Lehmen has to prove himself, or he can say goodbye to Arsenal come mid season.
Bucuresti has nothing to gain from this match, infact they might lose players to injuries if they were to go all out tonite.
My odds calculation says to take Arsenal tonite.

Verdict : Arsenal -1.5 FT (3 STAR BETS)

Upgrade to 5 star if AH changes to -1.25, refer to Asianbookie.com for actually AH.

BOCA JUNIORS vs ETOILE SPORTIVE

2007-12-12T16:18:00.000+08:00

Kickoff : 6.30pm

League : World Club Championship

Early preview from Soccernet:

YOKOHAMA, Japan, Dec 11 (Reuters) - South American champions Boca Juniors have promised to tear apart Tunisian side Etoile Sahel's defence in Wednesday's Club World Cup semi-final.

'We will definitely score goals and win,' Boca coach Miguel Angel Russo told reporters. 'Our style is to go out and to score goals. We won't change that philosophy for anyone.'
Barring any major upsets, Boca are expected to face Italy's AC Milan in the final of the seven-team tournament in Yokohama on Sunday. Milan face Japan's Urawa Reds on Thursday.
Even Etoile coach Bertrand Marchand admitted Wednesday's match in Tokyo was almost a case of mission impossible for the African Champions League winners.

'Boca are a massive club and are on a totally different level,' the Frenchman said. 'It's an honour for us just to play against them.'
Marchand offered similar eulogies to Mexico's Pachuca before his young side produced an upset 1-0 win in their opening match at the weekend.

But Etoile realistically have little chance of achieving a shock victory over Boca. The Argentine giants simply possess too much firepower - and the game means too much.
'We'll put them under pressure and if they slip up we will punish them,' said Russo, whose side missed out on the Argentine Apertura championship last month. 'We will score goals.'
Boca won the Club World Cup's forerunner, a one-off game between the champions of Europe and South America, three times, the last time beating Milan on penalties in 2003.

Brazilian clubs won the first two versions of the new-look FIFA tournament. Sao Paulo beat Liverpool 1-0 in 2005 before Internacional stunned Barcelona by the same score last year.
Russo is anxious to keep South America's winning streak alive.
'We take nothing for granted,' he said. 'We had thought we were going to play Pachuca. Anything can happen in football but every one of our players wants to fight for this trophy.'

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FREAKTIPS REVIEW

The first semifinal of the World Club Championship pits the Monster Boca Juniors against unknown Etoile Sportive. With the match being being doubt as David vs Goliath, many punters would be placing their moneys on Boca regardless of 1x2 or Asian Handicap. Even myself would be tempted to take Boca -1.5 just by reading the review available from Soccernet and FIFA.com. Boca's coach has promised an avalanche of goals against Etoile, indirectly hinting to readers that Boca would most likely qualify for the finals. With news such as this widely circulated on the media, why are the oddsmakers offering Tg2.5 & 2.75. If the tunisian team were to be that weak to concede three goals or more, they would have done so in the quarter finals match against Pachuca.

This comes to show that the Tunisian team does posses a strong backline and a reliable goalkeeper in their squad. With Etoile knowing very well of the firepower that Boca possesses, the coach would most probably be working on refining the squad's defence and relying on counter attacks to sneak a goal against Boca like what they have done to Pachuca. I do not underestimate Etoile as a club that made it to the Semifinals of the World Club championship just to be on a receiving end of the match. With oddsmakers offering such a low Tg, it strenghtens my believe that this game would be more off a dull match then a goal spree event.

Likely Boca to qualify with 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline in my opinion. Shall go with me placing my money on Total Goal Under 2.75.

Verdict : Total Goal Under 2.75 FT (3 STAR BET)

DAILY MUSING Ep1

2007-12-12T10:24:00.000+08:00

The thing about hanging out in forums is that you tend to come across people who thinks they have come across a sure win formula in punting, gets lucky by winning a couple of bets, get a couple of supporters and they start to create big hoo haa in the forum.

What pisses me off really is the fact that these forummers tend to get overly bloated by the sudden fame to the point that they think they can demand anything from the forum administrators. Infact some even threatened to leave the forum if their demands are not met. Lol, makes me laugh looking at such kind of demand. Do you think that if you leave, your legion of "supporters" will follow suit? Think twice dude.

There are no sure win formulas and there will never be one in the world of betting. Perhaps you might get lucky and go on a winning streak, eventually what goes up will always come back down. So for those who think they have discovered a sure win formula, please don't get all big and mighty. Cut down on the boastfull talking and prove to the world that in the long run your formula does work. I dare you! I challenge you!

In conclusion, I believe that consistency is the most important thing, there will be ups and there will be downs, but the most important off all is that the consistent ups should be more then the consistent down.

Just my 2 cents opinion. Flame me if you want, critize me till kingdom come, but I shall still stand by my views.

Cheers and happy punting. :)

MATCH 5 (CELTIC -1.5 vs FALKIRK) - 12 DEC 2007

2007-12-11T21:54:00.000+08:00

Kickoff : 3.45am
League : Scottish Premier League

Early Preview from Soccernet:

Celtic boss Gordon Strachan insists he cannot ask for any more from his players despite their failure to win in three games.
Falkirk visit Parkhead on Tuesday after the Clydesdale Bank Premier League leaders followed a 1-1 draw against Hearts with an identical result against St Mirren.
The game is Celtic's sixth in 18 days and Strachan has seen the likes of Lee Naylor and Artur Boruc added to his lengthy injury list in recent weeks, while other players have been playing with injuries.
And, while admitting they lacked the required quality to beat St Mirren, he refused to be critical of his players.
``We tried to win on Saturday, we had enough chances,'' he said.
``I explained the reasons why we didn't win - a good defensive display by St Mirren and our quality in the last third not being good enough. That can happen.
``The character and work rate, I have not got a problem with that.
``I can only ask them to do certain things. If they try hard enough, if they prepare well enough, if they respect the opposition, that's all you ask for as a manager.
``If their ability is down on the day, then that's up to the manager himself.
``You are talking about a team who beat Shakhtar after losing their left-back and centre-half, who at Tynecastle didn't have a problem until they lost a goal in injury time.
``I have absolutely no question about their commitment.''
The Celtic manager reiterated his desire for a January winter break to allow players to recover from knocks and produce a better standard of football in the closing stages of the season.
He feels his players may be suffering under the strain of their European adventure, the draw with St Mirren coming three days after they flew back from Milan.
And he agreed that he may reshuffle his side to give some players a breather.
``We might do,'' the former Scotland international said.
``I think I heard Arsene Wenger talking about his games that have come up quickly and they are a bit jaded.
``I didn't think there was anything wrong with our energy, it might be the toll of travelling mentally might have been a problem.
``But I don't think so, I put it down to the fact we didn't score the first goal.''
Falkirk manager John Hughes believes his young side are being rewarded for their growing maturity and will not be afraid of attacking Celtic.
The revitalised Bairns head to Glasgow buoyed by back-to-back impressive wins over St Mirren and Dundee United.
Falkirk have netted eight goals in the two victories and are now displaying the kind of free-flowing play which Hughes demands.
The Bairns boss again appears to have developed a talented, hungry side on a limited budget this term despite losing almost an entire team in the summer.
Hughes, himself nursing a heavy cold, said: ``It's a big, big game against Celtic.
``No matter what happens, win, lose or draw, we'll go there and give it a go.
``They are a young team and they know what we're after. So it's up to them to take responsibility on the pitch and it's definitely coming.
``I can see one or two turning into leaders, guys like Darren Barr, Graham Barrett and Kenny Milne.
``You get your rewards definitely for that attitude.
``The players have worked very hard in training and we are now getting the rewards on the pitch.''
Bairns defender Dean Holden feels a united team effort has helped the club turn the corner in recent weeks.
Burdened by the weight of expectation after finishing seventh last term, and having lost Alan Gow to Rangers, Hughes' side made a stuttering start to the new campaign.
But a run of just one defeat in six matches - against Rangers on November 24 - has helped them move to within six points of a top-six place.
Saturday's 3-0 win over Dundee United in wintry conditions alerted the rest of the SPL to Falkirk's rejuvenation.
Holden, the 28-year-old utility player, said: ``We've started to put the ball in the net and started keeping clean sheets too.
``We've been playing free-flowing football going forward, but the whole team has also been working hard to keep a good shape when we haven't got the ball.
``Saturday against United was a little bit different. The gaffer was keen for us to get the ball forward as quickly as we could because of the weather.
``It was one of those games where the team that makes the least mistakes comes out on top and that's how it worked out.
``We're just going out and playing and things seem to have clicked. We're just trying to keep our run going.''

_________________________________________________

FREAKTIPS PREVIEW

The formbooks looks great on Falkirk with 1 losses out of the last 6 games they played. In fact Falkirk dominated the last two games they played, hammering both Dundee and St Mirren, albeit both a sitting at bottom half of the Scottish Premier League. Celtic on the other hand had been faltering in the last 2 League games, drawing with Hearts and the latest against lowly St Mirren. Special consideration on Celtic who I believe were distracted by the crucial Champions League game against AC Milan sandwiched between both the league games which they drew.

With qualifying to the 2nd round of the Champions league at stake, I am pretty sure Strachan and his players would have been thinking more of the Milan game then to go for an all out win against Hearts. Within four days from returning from the Milan, they were scheduled to play against St Mirren. Fatigue could have taken its toll on Celtic players after playing that high level game against Kaka and Co.

That aside, I believe the Falkirk is a must win game for Celtic tonite. Rangers are hot on their heels in the league and have a game in hand. Losing or even drawing a game for Celtic is definitely unacceptable for the Manager. If they were to lose this game tonite or even draw, Rangers would most probably take pole position of the league by winning their next game.

Strachan would most probably field his first team players tonite against an "inform" Falkirk, despite Strachan claiming that he would reshuffle his team. Strachan knows how important is tonite's match and the oddsmakers know it too. Why do you think the large handicap given to Celtic?? Most likely the match would clear the Total Goals offered at Tg3 currently.

So my money is on Celtic -1.5 tonite:

The reason why:

1. Falkirk's revival and thrashing of St Mirren as well as Dundee is being blown out of proportions by the media. I believe Falkirk is being over rated by the media.

2. Celtic after qualifying to the 2nd round of the Champions League at the expanse of Shaktar, should have no worries for the time being and should by every right win comfortably against Falkirk.

3. Strachan knows very well that Celtic cannot afford to lose or draw this match, therefore we should see a strong Celtic squad being field tonite.

4. Imtimidation factor, Falkirk has yet to win against the top 2 teams in the League. Their last encounter against Rangers ended up with a 0-3 defeat. I believe Celtic would match that scoreline.

5. My own odds calculation favors Celtic.

The Verdict : (5 STAR BET) CELTIC -1.5

Please skip if AH changes to -1.75, refer to Asianbookie.com for actually AH.

EARLY CHOICES for ANALYSIS

2007-12-11T12:38:00.000+08:00

Just to post some matches that I think have the potential to become a 5 star bet analysis tonite. The matches are:

1. Real Madrid vs Lazio (Champions League)

2. Chelsea vs Valencia (Champions League)

3. Luton vs Norttingham Forest (English FA Cup)

4. Blackpool vs Cardiff (English League Championship)

I would be selecting the best match out of these four matches for my final analysis later tonite. For the time being, I see Blackpool yet again appearing in my list of matches. I chose Preston -0.5 against Blackpool the last time out and ended up Preston losing at home. My early intuition tells me that Blackpool would get another win here against Cardiff. Cardiff on the other hand must not be estimated as they held Charlton (2nd in League) to a 1-1 draw at home a few weeks ago. The trends for lower leagues (below the Premier League of course) tend to lean more towards the hometeam winning a match against teams lying within the same range in the table or holding a draw against the top ranking teams.

As I have mentioned, Blackpool would possibly run away with a win against Cardiff, but that does not mean that would be my final pick tonite. We shall see how to odds changes later tonite and pick a good match for analysis.

Entertaining matches tonite in the champions league with Liverpool playing a must win game tonite or else we can kiss Rafa's butt goodbye. Werder Bremen needing a win tonite against Olympiakos. Entertaining to watch but risky to bet in matches such as this. Remember England against Croatia anyone? Never say sure win, there is no sure win.

Till tonite. Regards Freaktips.

MATCH 4 (SWANSEA -2 vs HORSHAM) - 11 DEC 2007

2007-12-10T23:03:00.001+08:00

Kickoff : 3.45am
League : English FA Cup

Early Preview from Soccernet:

Swansea defender Marcos Painter is aiming to shake off a hamstring injury in time for the FA Cup second-round replay at home to Ryman Premier League outfit Horsham.
The former Birmingham left-back has been given extra time to recover after Saturday's trip to Bristol Rovers was postponed due to a waterlogged pitch.
Painter picked up a knock in Tuesday's 3-0 win against Northampton and could miss out while long-term absentee Owain Tudur-Jones (ankle) remains sidelined.
Thomas Butler is one of a clutch of players hoping to be given the chance to impress by Martinez, who is unconcerned about a lack of preparation time for the replay with Horsham.
Horsham called off their weekend fixture with AFC Wimbledon to boost their chances of causing an upset on front of the Sky cameras.
But Martinez said: ``I make the non-league side favourites when a league side goes into their environment, but I accept that we have to dictate the game at the Liberty Stadium.''
Horsham boss John Maggs has been dealt a devastating blow after learning that top goalscorer Carl Rook will be ruled out due to suspension.
Hornets striker Rook, who has found the net 12 times already this season and attracted the overtures of Tonbridge Angels, picked up his fifth booking of the season against Harrow two weeks ago.
The prolific striker was due to serve his ban against AFC Wimbledon this weekend but the game was abandoned due to a waterlogged pitch, forcing Rook to sit out the historical trip to the Liberty Stadium.
Goalkeeper Alan Mansfield will return to the squad having served his three-match ban but Paul Seuke has proven to be a worthy understudy and produced a man-of-the-match performance to keep Horsham in the competition during the original tie.
``I know Alan has played a lot this season but all I can do when I'm given the shirt is go out there and do my best,'' Seuke told the West Sussex County Times.
``I didn't do my chances any harm with the way I played last Friday.''

_________________________________________________
FREAKTIPS PREVIEW
Swansea is the obvious favourite to win this tie and they should rightly do so. Sitting at the top of the English League One , Swansea has got a reputation to protect and losing to a non-league club is definitely unacceptable. Oddsmakers know it and place a high AH at -2 for Swansea.

The question is whether Swansea is able to clear the AH set for them. The fishy thing about this match is that the total goals for this match are offered at 2.75 and 3 balls. If Swansea were to clear the -2 AH, that means automatically the Total Goals should be save as well. With both teams having sufficient rest ahead of this cup clash, I expect to see both teams playing at full strenght to win this match. Horsham for the fame of beating a league team and the cash they would receive if they advance to the next round. As for Swansea, need I say more, it is a must win game for them.

An interesting fact about Swansea playing in the league is that the last 9 matches they played, they won 5 all with a 4 matches ending with a single goal seperating Swansea from the losing team. Their last match though ended with a 3-0 win over Northampton. Will Swansea keep up the momentum? I would say YES and at AH -2 for Swansea, it would be tempting for many to take the underdogs who is already missing their top striker.

I would go with Swansea -2.

Why so:

1. Swansea playing at home ground

2. Horsham is missing their top striker

3. Both teams are well rested, and obviously a league team with well rested players tend to play better and hopefully score lots of goals.

4. Swansea thrashing Northampton City 3-0 should wet the appetite of Swansea strikers to add more goals to their tally.

Current odds from Asianbookie at 11.29pm are:

Swansea vs Horsham

Odds Status at : 11.30pm(10/12/07)
Current Asian Handicap Odds
2.00
0 : 2
1.90

Current 1x2 Odds
1.18
5.89
12.83

VERDICT : (5 STAR BET) SWANSEA -2
(Skip if Asian Handicap Changes to -1.75) - Check odds changes from Asianbookie.com

MATCH 3 (VILLAREAL -0.75 vs REAL BETIS) - 9 DEC 2007

2007-12-09T17:15:00.000+08:00

Kickoff : 12am
League : Spanish Primera Division

Early preview from ESPN Soccernet :

VILLARREAL, December 8 (Primera Liga) - Villarreal striker Jon Dahl Tomasson is expecting a tough clash against Real Betis this weekend, irrespective of the contrasting league positions of the two clubs.
Villarreal go into the 15th round of Primera Liga fixtures in third spot, level on 28 points with second-placed Barcelona and four adrift of leaders Real Madrid.
At the other end of the standings, Betis are 19th in the 20-team league with only 11 points from their 14 games and having lost four of their last five matches.
Betis' latest reverse came last Sunday when they were defeated 2-0 at home by Atletico Madrid - a result that ultimately brought about the demise of coach Hector Cuper and saw youth team coach Francisco Chaparro handed the reins until the end of the season.
And it is that managerial change which has Tomasson wary of the struggling Andalusian side this weekend.
``Betis are an opponent who are in a bad moment, but with the change of coach all the players are going to try and win themselves a place in the team and they are going to make it difficult for us,'' said Tomasson.
``The teams who close up a lot at El Madrigal are those who we have more trouble with.''
Tomasson scored his first goals for Villarreal since September with a brace in Wednesday's 2-0 UEFA Cup triumph over Elfsborg - a victory which put the Yellow Submarine into the next round.
Tomasson would have netted a hat-trick if his late penalty had not been saved, but the Danish striker admits he is pleased to be back among the goals.
``I am very happy for the two goals, which will give me confidence to continue working,'' he added.
``The truth is that I was not playing much and I hope that this good performance will give me more minutes on the pitch.''
Villarreal slipped to third last weekend after picking up just one point from their two matches against promoted sides Almeria and Real Valladolid.
That was disappointing for the Yellow Submarine, but Spain full-back Joan Capdevila believes a dip in results is normal for a team like them.
``The fans must understand that we are not a team like Real Madrid or Barcelona, and we can't win all the time. We all want to win all the time, but it's difficult,'' he said.
Betis fans would gladly swap places with their Villarreal counterparts though, with their side still looking for their first away victory in La Liga heading into the tough trip to El Madrigal.
New coach Chaparro helped Betis retain their Primera Liga status last season with a final-day victory at Racing Santander after Luis Fernandez had quit, and he is confident he can save the team again this time around.
``We have to change the chip, but we have a good enough squad to stay up and I am sure we can improve,'' he said.
Toni Doblas, Mariano Pavone, David Odonkor, Fernando Vega and Leandro Somoza are missing for Betis.
For Villarreal, Gonzalo Rodriguez and Josico are out through injury while Josemi has been omitted from a 19-man squad, but the good news is free-scoring striker Giuseppe Rossi is available again after injury.

_________________________________________________

FREAKTIPS PREVIEW

Villareal has a strong home record with no losses in the last 5 home games. Apart from their last draw at home against Almeria, Villareal will be all out to take a full 3 points from this game against 2nd from bottom team, Betis.

With Danish striker, Jon Dahl Tomasson scoring a double in Villareal's last UEFA games, he will be all out to add on to his goal tally. Villareal's striking power is boosted with the return of Giuseppe Rossi from injury. With Betis missing a number of players due to injury, a win seems inevitable for Villareal.

Hope I am not wrong this time. Double losses for Preston and PSV prediction wards a word of caution regarding my form.

Current odds from Asianbookie at 5.39pm are:

[3] Villarreal vs Real Betis [19]

Odds Status at : 5.40pm(9/12/07)

Current Asian Handicap Odds

1.80

0 : 3/4

2.10
Current 1x2 Odds

1.50

3.72

6.56

VERDICT : (5 STAR BET) VILLAREAL -0.75

(Skip if Asian Handicap Changes to -1) - Check odds changes from Asianbookie.com

ONE STOP PUNTING TIPS

FC TOKYO vs HIROSHIMA - Emperor Cup

SOCCER MUSING Part 2

RENNES vs DINAMO ZAGREB

HAMBURGER vs BASEL (21 Dec 2007)

CHINA vs ENERGY COTTBUSS - FRIENDLY

UEFA CUP PREVIEW - 21 Dec 2007

INTER MILAN vs REGGINA (20 Dec 2007)

UDINESE vs PALERMO (19 Dec 2007)

APOEL NICOSIA vs AO AGIA NAPA

UEFA CUP PREVIEW - 20 Dec 2007

MANCHESTER CITY vs TOTTENHAM - 19 Dec 2007

ENPPI Cairo - Al Masry Port Said

WUHAN vs ARMINIA BIELEFELD & CHINA U23 vs ENERGY COTTBUSS (FRIENDLY)

FC KOLN(-0.75) vs FC KAISERSLAUTERN - 18 Dec 2007

MATCH 8 : BORDEAUX -0.5 vs MARSEILLE (17 DEC 2007)

MATCH 7 (RODA -1.5 vs SPARTA) - 14 DEC 2007

COLO-COLO vs UNIVERSIDAD - 14 DEC 2007

*****AC MILAN -1.25 vs URAWA REDS (5 STAR)*****

MATCH 6 (ARSENAL-1.5 vs STEAU BUCURESTI) - 13 DEC 2007

BOCA JUNIORS vs ETOILE SPORTIVE

DAILY MUSING Ep1

MATCH 5 (CELTIC -1.5 vs FALKIRK) - 12 DEC 2007

EARLY CHOICES for ANALYSIS

MATCH 4 (SWANSEA -2 vs HORSHAM) - 11 DEC 2007

MATCH 3 (VILLAREAL -0.75 vs REAL BETIS) - 9 DEC 2007

AC MILAN -1.25 vs URAWA REDS (5 STAR)